A new poll by the Alliance For Real Change (AFRC) has tipped Peter Obi, the Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party (LP) to win Saturday’s Presidential election.
The poll, which also predicted a historic turnout, was released in a statement on Wednesday by the group, less than 72 hours to the start of voting.
The Alliance For Real Change is a US based organization that supports and promotes democracy in Africa.
“The poll is based on individual phone calls to over 3,500 Nigerians, across the 36 states (including FCT).
“The poll is based on likely voters (i.e. Nigerians with PVC, who are planning to vote on Feb 25th).
“Based on the poll, we can predict a voter’s turnout of historic level, that will surpass 60% of voters with PVC,” Mr. Valentine Williams O., the group’s data analyst said in the statement.
The latest poll, which has a 4% margin of error, shows Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) in the lead, with 35% ahead of Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the second position with 19% and and 13% proposing to vote for Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who fell in third place with 15%.
Interestingly, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) was not captured in the poll, despite his stature as a strong contender.
Noteworthy is that 31% of those interviewed said they were undecided or refused to say who they would vote for.
But Obi was the clear choice of first-time voters, with 71% of them saying they will vote for him, while
Recall that Obi had also maintained the lead in a third and final nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited (NOIPolls)
The result of the fresh poll was released on February 15, by the President and Founder of Anap Foundation, Atedo Peterside.
The third poll which was concluded in the first half of February 2023 followed two earlier polls in September and December 2022, which had also favoured the LP flagbearer. While Atiku got 11% and Tinubu 9%.
On the question of who among the candidates is best positioned to deal with the pressing issues in the country, Obi also dusted the rest with 53%. Atiku maintained his second position with 20%, while Tinubu came third with 10%.
See the breakdown of the poll results below:
OPINION POLL BY ALLIANCE FOR REAL CHANGE: DATED FEBRUARY 22ND, 2023
WHO WILL YOU VOTE FOR THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (+/- 4%)
ATIKU (PDP) 19%
OBI (LP) 35%
TINUBU (APC) 15%
OTHERS/UNDECIDED/REFUSED 31%
BREAKDOWN OF MALE VOTERS (+/- 4%)
ATIKU (PDP) 22%
OBI (LP) 32%
TINUBU (APC) 13%
OTHERS/UNDECIDED/REFUSED 33%
BREAKDOWN OF FEMALE VOTERS (+/- 4%)
ATIKU (PDP) 16%
OBI (LP) 38%
TINUBU (APC) 17%
OTHERS/UNDECIDED/REFUSED 29%
PREFERRED CHOICE OF FIRST TIME VOTERS (+/- 4%)
ATIKU (PDP) 11%
OBI (LP) 71%
TINUBU (APC) 9%
OTHERS/UNDECIDED 9%
WHO IS THE MOST QUALIFIED CANDIDATE TO DEAL WITH OUR ISSUES (+/- 4%)
ATIKU (PDP) 20%
OBI (LP) 54%
TINUBU (APC) 10%
OTHERS/UNDECIDED 16%
WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO YOU (+/- 4%)
ECONOMY 25%
SECURITY 20%
CORRUPTION 12%
POWER SUPPLY 11%
EDUCATION 11%
EMPLOYMENT 8%
RELIGION 7%
HEALTHCARE 4%
OTEHRS 2%
HOW LIKELY WILL ETHNICITY AFFECT YOUR CHOICE OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (+/- 4%)
VERY LIKELY 13%
UNLIKELY 60%
SOMEWHAT LIKELY 27%
CHECKPOINTCHARLEY 