A recent face-to-face nationwide poll on Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election shows Peter Obi of the Labour Party leading in at least 18 states, including Lagos, the stronghold of Bola Tinubu, the flagbearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress, who is poised for a humiliating defeat in the Southwest.
The poll, conducted by Nextier, less than four weeks to the election, also showed the Labour Party leading the voters’ preference at 37 percent of the survey respondents, and would win three other Southwest states, Ekiti, Oyo and Ogun, which was seen as the constituency of Tinubu.
According to the poll, Peter Obi is expected to sweep the Southeast and Soutsouth and also win in Benue and Nasarawa States. Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory was also called for the Labour Party.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 27 percent of the survey responses, while the All Progressives Congress got 24 percent, with the New Nigeria Peoples Party at 6 percent.
Nextier, an Africa-focused consulting firm, conducted its second presidential poll on Friday, January 27, 2023. They reportedly used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of 2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.
“The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory,” it said.
Nextier however added that “although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory.
“None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states.
Interestingly, contrary to views held by the two major parties, APC and PDP, “the survey results show that Labour Party can achieve 25 percent of the votes in 23 states.
“Therefore, the presidential elec,tion could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.”
The survey said that most registered voters (72 percent) have decided on their preferred party.
“This result is consistent across rural and urban voters. Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices.
“Eighty-three percent of the respondents indicated that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the elections,” Nextier said.